Monday, September 8, 2008

Survey USA polling for Virginia: McCain inches Up

The lastest Survey/USA poll conducted for Virginia was conducted (9/5 - 9/7) for weeks after its previous poll which revealed Barack Obama was polling greater than John McCain. The latest poll illustrates a small move by McCain, who now leads Obama in the Commonwealth 49% to 47%.

Frankly, I am waiting for the next Public Policy Polling results to come in in large part because the Survey/USA poll is only a spectrum of 900 respondents of which 807 were registered but only 717 were deemed likely voters.

One interesting point was that both candidates apear to be losing 10% of voters from their own declared Party and Obama earned 15% of the self-declared conservative vote and McCain earned 11% of the liberal vote.

Some of the data:

54% males supported McCain 43% Obama
43% females supported McCain 51% Obama
59% of whites supported McCain 37% Obama
84% of African-Amercians support Obama 14% McCain
73% pro-life support McCain 24% Obama
65% pro choice support Obama 30% McCain

55% of Indepedents McCain 34% Obama
6% polled still undecided

***

42% of respondents "could change mind" Obama
39% of respondents "could change mind" McCain

51% "mind made up" McCain
47% "mind made up" Obama

The map:

The map appears to be very similar to past elections in terms of likely support.

Barack Obama:
Will need to hold John McCain to a modest 25% or less in NOVA where Obama holds his strongest base of support. Barack will reap rewards of newly registered voters and should strongly hold; City of Richmond, Norfolk, Hampton Road, parts of Newport News area and will need to shore up large young voter turnout in Williamsburg (W&M), Christopher Newport, Old Dominion, University of Virginia, Virginia Tech for example to offset gains Mccain may have with older vote in those areas. The I64 corridor should offset McCains numbers in Norfolk (military, veterans) and Va Beach. Obama will need greater turnout in Suffolk to offset Chesepeake. Some have predicted Chesepeake to be split, but I think McCain now is seeing his registrations rising from new conservative voters following the Pat Robertson line. In fact many of these evangelicals are younger ones as well.

John McCain:

Will focus Wednesday in Fairfax, Va at his rally on meesages directed at military, veterans, moderates and independents. Though the rally is in Fairfax, his message will be broader. McCain should secure SW Virginia and much of the I81 corridor of the Valley. He will pick up most of his NOVA support in Stafford, Prince William, Spotsylvania and parts of King George, down into Fredericksburg. McCain will need to win with greater margins to offset NOVA numbers of Obama by votes in Chesterfield, Henrico, Goochland, Louisa, Hanover, Caroline, Powhatan, Amelia, Dinwiddie, Prince Edward. McCain will struggle in parts of Prince George with non-military and will lose by greater margins in Petersburg and the City of Richmond that he will need to offset in Central and rural Virginia by those areas down in Danville, South Boston, Lynchburg and Roanoke and the remaining SW counties.

1 comment:

Jim said...

I would be interested in getting your take on a district or county by county breakdown of how you feel the turnout versus result will go come November.

Thank you.