Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Post/ABC News Poll: Sleepwalking Pollsters

There comes a point when all these pollsters have to simply just take some time off, take a break, take a step back and look at and see if there are other motives behind the polling in the first place.

I only say this because alot of these polls are all over the place. How can all these different polling agencies not even be in the same ballpark half the time? Well the answer lies in the analysis.

The analysis bears out that the "polls" are not in effect polling effectively with regard to what the election day will bring. Some can infer that because we are so far away from November 4th that polls are meaningless and in fact they are except for one very important thing; the news soundbite.

Its not a coincidence that these news agencies conduct these polls and then provide the information to the broadcast groups and simply provide the results to them to broadcast. Very little specifics are released at the time a poll is released regarding respondents.

For example, the Post/ABC news poll released today has Barack Obama leading John McCain by NINE points. NINE? Yeap :

49% to 43%

The news media simply reports the results and portrays it as headlines without any analysis of the underlying data supporting the poll in the first place.

In this case, the ABC News poll is complete absurdity.

In polled 1,082 respondents (916 registered voters and 780 likely voters)
76% were registered voters

Of the 1,082 polled 54% Democrat Party 38% Republican Party & 7% Independent/Other
Leaning % : 46% Democrat and 28% Republican

44% Protestant 22% Catholic 11% Non-Protestant
Born Again Evangelical: 54% NO 45% yes

White 74%
Black 12% (163 respondents)
Hispanic 6%
Asain 1%

Female 52%
Male 48%

With datapoints as these I am amazed that John McCain got 43%.

Does ABC News actually believe that this sample is representative of the electorate on November 4th?

Or is the poll simply set up to provide talking points for the left and left wing bloggers that have taken this poll and run with it without disclosing any of the datapoints.

Again I call into the question the integrity here by those surrogates who use polls like this to "convince" people of a reality that is simply whimsical in an effort to drum up more support.

Look this election is close, very close and is leaning to Obama no doubt but NINE points. This just a day after other media release polling on 1/3 of the Democrats have a racial bias towards Blacks. That polling is about as valid as this latest ABC News poll.

This poll strikes of shilling for a candidate. There can be no denial of that given the parameters of the respondent group.

There is a 16% difference in the datapoint Democrat to Republican.


No way is this a fair and legitimate sample.

Public Policy Polling is a far better and legitmately consistent polling service in my view on balance, which is very telling about the mainstream media and how they conduct their polling groups.

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