Sunday, August 24, 2008

Public Policy Polling: Virginia; All the Motivation One Needs

A recent Virginia tracking poll that was conducted by Public Policy Polling out of Raleigh, NC completed a poll from August 20 to 22, 2008 as it has the previous three months regarding the Presidential Election.

While some bloggers will simply post the results of said poll and rejoice to some extent, it is also very important to analyze the entire range of data that the poll provides. Just the the mainstream media who never like to tell viewers the very questions and emographics of any given poll but simply provide the results, these blogs fail to recognize through critical analysis just exactly who the respondents actaully are and what there declared political ideology may be.

In this latest PPP poll conducted there were 1,036 likely voters polled. Of those 52% were Women and 48% were Men. 40% were declared Democrats and 34% were Republicans and low and behold 26% were INDEPENDENTS; aka Republicrats!!!

Now the liberal blogs have been discounting the Independents in Virginia. Apparently it does not suit there current whim and they continue to downplay the role Independents will play in the Fall.

Hey Raising Kaine; 26% guys!!!

Of the 1,036 polled 75% were White, 20% African-Amercian, 5% listed as other. The age breakdown is as follows:

18-29: 15%
30-45: 28%
46-65: 41%
65+: 15%

Born in Virginia 48%. Not native Born 52%. The saddest statistic of all in my view. Frankly it is what has been contributing to the change in dynamic across the state over the last ten years in my book.

90% of respondents declared themselves "firmly committed".

The RESULTS: +/-3% Obama 47%
McCain 45%
Undecided: 8%

Striking Data: Obama polled 84% of "declared" Democrats while McCain earned 12% of "declared" Democrats. This has to be a concern given this data is from August 20 to 22 going into the DNC in Denver.

Obama appears poised to take the younger vote as promised earning a 23 pt margin of voters under 30 where McCain hold as 24 pt margin of voters 65 plus. This may better serve McCain in FL than Va given the current demographic data.

Obama hold a 9 pt lead with Women while McCain has a 5pt lead with Men. Obama earned 55% of Whites and 89% of African-Americans.

Issues: Declared Importance:

Economy & Jobs: 46%
Iraq: 20%
Morals & Values 11%
Taxes 5%
Healthcare: 6%
Education 5%

The KEY here is the 8% undecided and the 26% declared Independent respondents. Out of 1,036 voters these numbers are very significant as is the 12% of declared Democrats who declared support for McCain.

Going into the Convention, one mistake that the Democrats may be undertaking is a reintroduction of the Iraq issue. Rating 20% significance in the poll is a strong number, but with current events and recent timeline declarations on the table Iraq it appears by the time the Republicans hold their convention could be a very mute point. If Iraq indeed seeks a withdrawal and is endorsing such from an internal stabilization of the politcial scene, there will not be much difference regarding the views of Obama/McCain. Agreater issue could and very well may be Russia. Joe Biden will have to help Obama on this given he latest response to the situation in Georgia. Expect heavy concentration in the first debate on Russia/Poland/NATO and not Iraq.

Given that 40% of respondents declared themselves as Democrat and Obama's margin is a mere 2% is astounding. It leads to a conclusion that since 12% of Democrats said they would support McCain, that a majority of the Independents most be supporting McCain . Remember, McCain started with only 34% declared Republicans in the poll.

The fight will not be for those Independents. It will be for that 8% Undecided. I venture to say that if after the last year or so, one is still undecided that chances are those votes may swing Republican if the last two elections are any indication. However, we are unable to discern the age of the undecideds which of course could change that trend. It is only August. If the number of Undecided is still 8% come October, the Obama camp could be in trouble.

Every mainstream media outlet lists Virginia as "in-play" or "toss-up". The results from the PPP poll is in direct support of such an assertion it seems. The electoral votes from Virginia are poised to be very significant come election night.

I am very close to reaching my goal of having 100 newly registered voters for this Fall and a majority of those I am speaking with are the "unreported ones". I call them that because the mainstream media portrays all first-time voters or newly registered voters as somehow being a voting block for Obama. This is one of the great myths of this election.

There are countless Independents and Republicans that will for the first time participate in this election, at least here in Chesterfield and Henrico County. I meet Republicans ever week that have never particpated in the process. Think about it. Chesterfield County has been overly Republican for decades and yet there is only about a 38% turnout each cycle.

From the community base of potential voters, there is still a majority out there that has not been reached or informed or enagaged to participate.

47-45% is motivation enough to get everyone engaged!!!!!

4 comments:

James said...

Certainly alot can happen before the election but to be in a dead heat at the opening day of the Convention illustrates that the Obama campaign is not some well-olied machine that the media portrays it. The media characterized the whole text message annoucement as some savy tool where in reality it was merely a gimmick. After the dust settled, there appears little effect with the Biden selection.

Also, there does not appear to be a military data point in the poll, which is a huge influence in the dynamic of the Virginia spectrum.

As enthusiastic as the Obama campaign began and given the fact that at every turn the media tells everyone under the sun that the GOP is in disarray nationally, can someone explain to me how the real story is not that John McCain has wiped away a 13 point deficit in the polling in less than eight weeks.

If the media were intending to play fair in this election there would be more considerable focus on the fact that the McCain camp with its new direction is taking it to Obama's team instead of merely dismissing things like the Warren forum as being set up for McCain and playing the expectation game.

Anonymous said...

If the polls at the end of this week do not provide Barack Obama with at least a six point bounce then its safe to say that his bid is in real trouble.

Wildcard is not Obama, but Michelle Obama's speech as well as the Clintons. Will they get in line?

And Mark Warner speeking in s similar role as Obama did in the last Convention as a keynote speaker could be telling for 2012 should Obama not win the election.

Many here in Virginia that supported Hillary Clinton have informed me that they will vote for McCain because is probably the safest Republican. Afterall, four years down the line they will get another crack at it with Clinton if Obama loses.

Can you say a Clinton/Warner ticket in 2012? Very possible if the stars align.

William said...

I am not thus far even after a very sound speech by Michelle Obama the Convention taking shape as a springboard for Barack. There appears something missing thus far. If as inspiring as the Obama and Kennedy appearances are, this is shaping up once again to being another 2004 Convention.

I do foresee Biden being the attack dog. Clinton will take a few shots but not real hard ones at McCain. She has to hedge her bets. If Obama wins she will won't to continue the bi-partisan relationship she has had with McCain in the Senate. Should Obama win and the Senate not get what it needs to overturn things, McCain is the kinda Republican that in the past as been able to work with Democrats. She hits him really hard and he loses that relationship will be severed.

That said, I cannot put my finger on the right way to articulate what kind of expression is missing so far, but it just all seems like the Obama people are having the media pundits do their bidding throughout the day instead of providing any real substantial policy particulars. It is only day two however.

Looking forward to Mark Warner's speech tonight.

Anonymous said...

Survey USA has Virginia +1% for McCain. The shift is on. Watch the liberals in NOVA pullout all the stops like the did against Allen in 2006 regardless of any of the truths.

Remember liberals vote against people and conservatives tend to vote for people; that is a major distinction. All the liberal bloggers are attack dogs against McCain/Bush instead of trying to convince Virginians any reason why they should vote "for" Obama. Its all negative about why you should vote "against" all Republicans.