Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Real Estate Numbers Beginning to Tell the Story

While the citizens of Chesterfield County await the outcomes of such proposals as Roseland and a modified Upper Swift Creek Plan that will come before the Board (again as it would have it) in the coming months some First Quarter real estate data has been released by George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis that is very interesting.

Residential Sales in the four Metro Richmond localities-Hanover, Henrico, the City of Richmond and Chesterfield County are down some 33% versus the first three months of 2007 and pending closings are down 25%. Chesterfield experienced 1,847 residential sales and pending closings in this period while Henrico experienced 1,624.

While Henrico County may have experienced a few less sales it is important to note that its average closing price was 7,000 higher than that of Chesterfield County. Henrico's sales were off 33% from a year earlier.

While we speak to the future in terms of many of these large zoning proposals before the Board in the coming months, one must be reminded about the excess in real estate inventories that already exists in the County. Another factor is the increasing number of foreclosures hitting the Courthouse steps this Spring as compared to last year.

There was a recent piece in the RTD that spoke to the learning curve that is being experienced by the newly elected Supervisors on the Board and these numbers cannot be good news as it appears as though these First Quarter's economic numbers and indicators may not be the best way to start off 2008. Admittedly, these numbers are not a true reflection of the current Board as much as they are a forecast of what may be on the horizon.

Lets hope that these members are brushing up on Econ 101.


Steve W. said...

Twop hopmes on my block in Edgewater near Woodlake are in foreclosure. Will not this have an overall impact the the local comps of proerty values as well?

Jim C. said...

It is certainly a factor to be sure.
I just am not getting this rather lack of progress by the Board on any front.
They made promises galore and still we sit with nothing to show for it except a decrease in the tax rate at this point that will do nothing to address future shortfalls that are right around the corner.
Its as if they are hedging that they will not have to allocate funds for new schools because they plan to make that a contingent upon lareg scale zoning approvals and yet they have one in Roseland right it front of them they can't decide on.
If Ms. Durfee was so active in the years runniong up to her election and so knowledgeable on the issues given she considers herself the "First Lady of Smart Growth" and she saw the Upper Swift Creek Plans for years now how is it she needs more time now to get things moving.
Activism and talk is cheap Ms. Durfee....leadership is priceless.

Dunja said...

Good words.