Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Is Chesterfield in Decline?

Its been almost a month since the election that resulted in the changing of the guard of leadership. As the political rhetoric has waned and those invoking such tones that succeeded in bids for election prepare to enter the trial by fire known as County politics it begs a very simple question that was nevered answered by any of these newly elected officials during the campaign season;

Is Chesterfield County in Decline?

I only ask this basic question because as some would have us believe the election was all about "change" and would like to persuade us that a thirty percent voter turnout is somehow a "mandate" for new direction.

But where is this new "direction" bound to lead us? Of course not a single candidate for office could articulate any true new vision for the County in a micro sense but took the road toward addressing the macro issues of the impacts of growth and schools that have resulted from the commercial and residential growth rates in the County. When I say "addressing" I mean to say they pointed the political finger and who they sought to blame for those impacts, offering up very little in the way of substance or solution. It was an election season that may have been less about ideas or solutions but rather one simply solely based on change. And I do not mean philosophical change either. I mean it may have been change for change sake and if that is the case our County could been for more pains.

So now that Chesterfield voted for this change, exactly what "change" do these newly elected officials seek to bring to our community? I ask this in large part because growth was made as the most central issue to most campaigns that much of the other issues before the County today went largely unaddressed with hardly even a question. In fact, a few campaigns made the growth issue the catalyst for change.

I wonder just how many of these officials dug deep enough to learn the exact state of affairs in the County and its economic vitality? When you look across the river at Henrico County and see that residents of that area returned a Board of Supervisors to leadership with a bit tenious record at best when compared with those here in Chesterfield. I wonder if the incumbants either got caught in a firestorm for change or rather were unable to articulately defend the record of the County before the voters.

It has been my opinion that the incumbant campaigns were remarkably mismanaged and they fell into the trappings of a gameplan laid out by the challengers as well as a reliance on the old notion that the County would also lean Republican as it has so many times in the past. Incumbants allowed the tone and the focus to be in an area that benefited the challengers thus finding themselves playing defense the last four weeks going into the election day and managed to miss opportunities with the policy agenda leading into the election to reasonable address its constiuents in a caring manner.

You never play defense with the cards so stacked in your favor. Why? Simple. Chesterfield is simply not in the state that the challengers portrayed by any means. Does the County have some critical issues before it? Certainly. But the County is not having to address any issue that every County in the region is not experiencing as well. The entire region is experiencing these issues , which is why you will hear more about regional cooperation in the coming years. No one has the revenues to adequetely address all the needs each area has with regard to transportation and roads and now that it appears the new Board will not endorse such measures as impact fees or raising cash proffers Chesterfield will have to make some very hard spending choices in the coming year if they are to deliver true change and it begs the question just why it was Chesterfield County that saw this result with the election and other localities did not? Chalk that up to poor communication and little transparency on policy.

But back to the question. Is Chesterfield in decline? The viewpoint an incumbant should have been focusing on is the trends we have been experiencing.

Chesterfield County is up in virtually every economic indicator from 1996 to 2006. With over 292K residents we have seen our population increase 1.8% every year the last six years. Over 2005 and 2006 we saw an increase of 2,923 new residents. The greater Richmond region only grew 1.3% and Virginia as a whole only 1.2% in the same period.

From 2000 to 2006 our labor force has grown 15% and the 2005/06 period grew 3.9% by adding 4,435 new jobs to the Chesterfield economy. Compared with 1997 our labor force has grown some 22% in ten years. and our current unemployment rate is a mere 2.7%. Has anyone seen the rate for places in Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky or even Maryland? The County currently has .7 jobs per person in a county of just under 300K.

If there is an issue it must be in wages. Chesterfield residents on avergae earn roughly $702 a week which is increasing but lags both the Richmond region ($799) and Virginia ($822). We need to find ways and attract those business models in the service and medical industries that will bring higher paying jobs to the County to increase this figure.

Where is or was the challengers plan for attracting new business, real business and not retail which accounts for 19% of the jobs in the County, other than to point to commercial development. And some of the rhetoric during the campaigns should have been challenged by the incumbants regarding this idea that the County has too much commercial development.

Commercial development accounts for only 13% of the acreage in the County and of that number some 62% of it is industrial (8,500 acreas) 16% of it retail (2,200 acreas) and 9% (1,300 acreas) is office development. That leaves 87% of our county acreage being of the Residential variety. My guess is these politicians were confusing communities as commercial endeavors, which by the way added 1,200 jobs to our economy in 2005/06.

Even though we have been lagging in wages when compared to other areas of the State, the growing economy has trigger an increase in overall individual income. From 1995 to 2004 averages increased some 6.3% per year through the period. Per capita income also saw an increase of some 47% from 1995 to 2004.

Chesterfield has also seen its gross tax sales (receipts) increase 4.5% from 2000 to 2006. In 2006 alone the County experienced 3.4 billion in taxable sales from retail and services. That number is above average for the entire State.

In terms of housing, the County has just had a run of tremondous growth. What the challengers in the election failed to mention was those entities they attack so much for developing the County or contributing to campaigns accounted for some 35 million in tax revenues in the construction industry alone. Currently, and again it was not mentioned in the campaigns of course, permits for commercial purposes are down over 2005. 1999 was the highwater mark at 900 permist issued but by 2006 that number had fallen to 700 and it appears as though 2007 will be even less. A fair question may have been where the new Board expects to make up or generate the revenue lost due to the decline in permits that will certainly continue over the next two years why the housing and credit markets work themselves out?

While the victors early this month make the respective "pledges" in the local papers, I wonder just how many of them realize exactly what economic shape the County is truly in? By every indication they have inherited a County that is beating virtually every economic indicator and on balance is a locality that certainly ranks among the top three in the entire State. I just cannot help but think that the growth issue that was the "sword" of this months election may have had a primary role in vitality of the economic condition that has been left for them to manage.

Then again the elected officials are no longer challengers but are all incumbants beginning in January and it may be a different story come the Spring when they will be forced to dispense with the "change" agenda and work to advance solutions.

Fact is these officials are entering offcie at a time when the economic conditions of the greater economy may work against them. The previous years are certainly some very hard numbers to face up to if things begin to unravel nationally.

Is Chesterfield in Decline? With numbers like these, You be the judge.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

As to the new BOCS; its easy to OPPOSE things but it is alot harder to be FOR things come time to serve in office.

I was not that impressed with the selections by the new Supervisors for the new Planning advisory.

Though we saw it coming in Matoaca, the fact that Bass stays in the midst of seating before some of the largest grwoth agendas ever was striking given M. Durfee posturing as the change candidate. What good does it do the area if the two now appear to be willing to work in consort. Did bass not support much of what the Supervisors supported last year?

Anonymous said...

It is very true that the growth became the rally cry or battling ram of the election this month, but I think those in the races boxed themselves in and focused merely on one aspect of the growth issue and it was one they knew who resinate.
That is how you win elections, but certainly not how you lead.
I found some of the school board races offering more in the way of real discussions about policy and found virtually all the other races lacking any real debate on issues before County save Bermuda.
The County like everywhere else has pockets that are in decline and need to be looked at more critically.

Jody L. Wilcox said...

Great article……I truly believe that the reaction Chesterfield County has, going forward, TO the Board Change and this past election is what should be seen as the important factor that occurred this past November. If the voters now begin to really keep those now elected accountable to keep their promises of change then I think a mandate/paradigm shift has occurred but if this board acts no different than past boards then it was just a reaction to campaign tactics. Remember that in 92' the issues were virtually the same; the board was overhauled as it is now 15 years later and we're still discussing the same issues. Also, it might wake up the political machine in our county to practice what they preach, remember it is the citizens that vote (and not a small power base) and that we need to use all resources possible to reach the voting masses. The demographics are changing in Chesterfield but that doesn’t mean that it is necessarily changing for the worse or to a different ideology, it just means we’re growing. We need to adapt to the changing demographic without changing the ideals that makes Chesterfield such a great place to live. Ms. Durfee actions alone will either prove that there has been a fundamental change; or that the unmanaged growth, assessments and the like so hotly talked this election cycle, will continue unabated and nothing has changed in Chesterfield…I have a feeling when election time comes around once more we will still be debating these topics and our county economy will be doing fine even those running will painted differently.

Anonymous said...

The bigger issue facing the new Board could be shrinking revenues if the economy retreats in the face of national economic constraints.
It has been remarkbale that CC has weathered much of the housing storm but I am not confident it will last. Foreclosures are increasing, up another 150 last month, and though the impact may be smaller on our market than most it could get worse if the trend nationally continues.
I am less concerned with the credit and financial markets as a matter course because CC has one of the highest savings and banking deposits of any locality in Virginia.
Should housing really slow and commercial development follow the new Board will have less revenues to budget with coming in and that could be a problem. Though there has been a 80/20 mix that 20 has always been substantial for the Board to rely on.

Anonymous said...

My guess is that there will be no progress tonight at the meeting regarding impact fees.
It will be left to the new Board most likely which may not be a bad thing if we can mobilize people to understand that even though it may "only"- Dan Geckers word)be 50 million in garnered revenue last I checked that was an elementary school price tag. Just saying, taking options off the table like Gecker has proposed as well as other new memebers seems a bit disingenius when you factor in the potential for revenue shortfalls "if" a recession approaches within the next two years.

AlterofFreedom said...

Jody thank you for your comment. I will be sure to add you to the Alter of Freedom blogroll, rants and raves section for:

The Contemporary Conservative

J.Scott

Jody L. Wilcox said...

Thanks, and I'll do the same...I was just trying to breakup all those anonymous comments....I think anonymous is a little schizo since he likes to argue with himehelf on blogs alot. :)

Bob Olsen said...

Is Chesterfield in decline? Some times it is real and sometimes perceived. There is a perception that Chesterfield Town Center is in decline, because some shoppers are seeing groups of youths congregating, and acting irresponsibly, as they will sometimes do. If some of us look at our own past they will find similar acts of their own. Some of the perceived decline is related to the “paving over” of Chesterfield. How soon they forget that Brandermill was nothing but a swamp until a couple of frat boys decided to get into the development business.
Chesterfield has made many strides toward improvement of “Quality “, but some in the past administrations seemed to only interested in garnering medals to boast about at the next VACO meeting.
The real decline can happen if the present budget crunch is not addressed quickly. The past board has been hiding the problem during this election year, and has dug a hole that the new board will have to crawl out of before the growth issues can be addressed.
The matter of how the sub prime induced recession will affect Chesterfield is only a matter of when and how much, not if, as some would have you believe. In the old days it was known as whistling past the grave yard.
Is all growth bad, NO.? Is no growth good, no? And, the real definition of the new buzz word “smart “growth has to be some where in the middle. That is going to be the real trick, catching up from the hole dug in the past, and setting the agenda for the future.
Don’t expect miracles. The new board needs to address the budget first, then work on the growth issue. If they don’t make the changes we want to see, in four years we run them out and try again. We won’t wait 16 years ,as we did this time

Jody L. Wilcox said...

Bob,
Nicely stated

AlterofFreedom said...

Bob your point is well taken. Chesterfield has participated in a classic urban migration pattern as growth as moved west along the two major corridors; Midlothian and Hull Street. The example to look at as to what can happen when we allow an area to to suffer because of growing other areas would be Jefferson Davis Highway. There are some measures being taken today to address that corridor, but I wonder why in the last fifteen years it has been relatively left to suffer the negative impacts of sprawl. We are approaching an era of proposed cooperation or regionalism and yet when you look at the areas where our County meet the City of Richmond these areas are especially in need of economic makeovers. We are hoping that Cloverleaf Mall will be a successful enterprise, but what in each instance where the City meets Chesterfield at every point along Chippenham Parkway. If you find a skepticism towards regional cooperation with the City these areas are examples as to why people have mixed feelings about such measures. The City and its internal politcial fighting is exactly what we in the County want to move away from. It will be the classic motive like in every other case where the affluent suburban counties in the end will be leveraged to support the City. This of course is a city government that can barely reach agreement on anything. I lost much of any faith I may have had in the City when they failed to get a deal done for a new stadium and personally have always felt that the County should be home to the R-Braves given the fact that most cars parked at the games always had our County tax stickers on them for years.
I am looking for the new Board to hold quarterly town hall meetings to address the needs with constituents. We need our leaders to make the committment regardless of the turnout in the short term as the community builds in involvement. I only say this because last year we started a base of interest as PTA meetings began to grow larger in turnout going into the election as people begin to truely feel some of these impacts of growth. The one thing that many of us were very critical of previous Boards were the accessibility and transparency concerns.
Bob you hit it right on about the budget and the priority there. the budget was probably the area where things were the elast transparent and it took the fight over pre-k funding with the school board before people actually began to ask questions. It also took a feature in the RTD about how the Counties in the region were balancing on percentage basis where they were allocating funding in a given budget year that proved we are lagging in areas where others are placing emphasis, like Henrico County in its schools.
SHOW US YOUR BUDGET AND WE WILL TELL YOU WHAT YOU VALUE!!!!!

Anonymous (5)you are right about the current Board taking no action on impact fees. I am supporting these fees and will undoubtedly have to make the case in January at the first new Board meeting. I was not surprised there was deferment and my guess is it may have been that way even if three of them were returning and not just Art Warren.

J.Scott

Rem said...

This may be a bit off topic but maybe not.

How come Richmond is still the sacred cow for such things of regional interest, as a baseball park or a collesium type venue? The surrounding counties are now as large as the city. If regionalism was all its hyped up to be, then how come you don't hear about Richmond supporting a new Diamond in Chesterfield or Henrico? The current ballpark has proven over many times that an inner city population alone cannot and will not support it, or the collesium for that matter. City resident have just as much transportation power(cars vs reliance on mass transit) and income as the suburbs do.

I think CC should revisit the idea of building either a ballpark or collesium type venue across from Cloverleaf Mall property and then ask the city residents to reciprocate the kind of regionalism we have been paying homage to the city lo these many years. It has the space needed. The roads needed. And that area could use just as much revitalization as the city. It would generate work, sales, taxes and supporting business. All those folks moving in across the street (Cloverleaf project) can walk to it. I have my doubts about the future of AAA baseball but a venue that seats 15,000 and great accustics would be a home run! Especially if it was surrounded by five or six small ampitheaters and park space to support it. We could offer the Richmond Folk Festival a new home and run busses from downtown to Cloverleaf instead of the other way around.

I think its time regionalism worked both ways and I hope the new Board will consider it.

Anonymous said...

If a ballpark gets too politicized, how about building with the Ukrops or Sports Bakers a large soccer complex where not only associations but high school districts or regionals could be played in a soccer stadium and also propose to the Richmond Kickers to come to where the FANS are here in the County. Soccer is the most popular youth sports hand down in the County and its time the County with its Parks and Recreation step up and make a significant investment in this area with the business and non-profit community.

Rem said...

Sorry J. Scott. I had not read all of your reply to Bob and it sounds like I'm parroting you which I am not.

I'm just a tad bit tired of hearing about regionalism, aka cooperation, aka send us your money and be glad you did.

If regionalism means cooperating and chipping in - fine - CC will match every dollar the city sends us for roads... on a new ballpark for them. That way we can get to the ballgames that much easier.

Rem said...

I read in the local paper today that Dickie King of Chesterfield BOS and current chairman of the RRPDC and other area representatives are "standing ovation" proud of themselves for their hard work.

I'm hoping there is more substance than what is reported, but in a nutshell, its taken them a few years to finally decide what the strenths and weaknesses of their commission are. In addition to that, they also "unanimously" passed a list of priorities that will bring a "greater sense of direction, unity and cooperation to the Richmond region." These priorities they are so proud of are and I quote "working on regional infrastructure assessments and initiatives; utilizing new and established technologies to the greater benefit of the region,its localitiies and its citizens; and establishing a proactive legislative program both federally and within Virginia's legislature."

If I read this right, after four years, they have decided they are important enough to continue their existence and to try harder to accomplish something, as of yet undefined, in the near future, if they can get enough money from the feds or the state.

Who says CC isnt leading the way in regionalism? We can "committee" with the best of them.

Mike Lanksky said...

I agree the larger question will be a slower revenue growth pattern in the General Fund. The average residential tax bill increased around 7.5% a year for the past 4 years. The easy revenue increase from the housing market is gone.

Anyone can be against something but it takes some intelligence and leadership to move forward. I think people are going to regret Durfree and her devious cronies in the next four years.

Anonymous said...

Mike you may end of being correct in the long term but her victory was a result of being accountable in front of those that would vote and on that score she and her campaign proved savvy.
One question remains as to whether she will be able to build coalitions of people with different priorities, that hasbeen a knock on her in her advocacy efforts and at times people were critical of that in her.
It appears her influence on Mr. Bass may result in some change given his recent vote against further development in areas like Old Hundred where it is already densely residential.
If the two together do not create solutions regarding growth the next time Durfree comes before voters could be a much harder sell. She campaigned on smart growth so she has to deliver.

Mike Lanksky said...

I think Durfree is doomed from the start. Elected with well less than fifty perent of a light vote.
Many of her supporters are expecting a vote against all development. She looks like the second failed Matoaca supervisor in a row.
When you look at the three losers who ran in Matoaca, it is understandable that some think Chesterfield is in decline.

Anonymous said...

In all fairness as J. Scott has pointed out they have not as yet even kicked off.
Durfee will be beginning the first quarter in 2008 and like anything else she will be hard pressed to make real headway in the first year I think.

Is anyone not echoeing J. Scotts earlier points that the County needs FULL TIME Supervisors like those in Northern Virginia. We are the largest locality with part time leaders.

Its time these positions are changed to be full time to do the peoples work the right way instead of seeing things come up before meetings without leaders even have seen it before.

If ever there was a time to make this change J. Scott is right, it is now in the next two years.

James said...

Why has no one raised this issue of full time BOCS before?

Is there a charter or some restriction that must be lifted by the Board or the voters?

Interesting point here.

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Халохот, спустившись вниз по улочке, смачно выругался. Сначала от Беккера его отделяла лишь одна супружеская пара, и он надеялся, что они куда-нибудь свернут. Но колокольный звон растекался по улочке, призывая людей выйти из своих домов. Появилась вторая пара, с детьми, и шумно приветствовала соседей. Они болтали, смеялись и троекратно целовали друг друга в щеки. Затем подошла еще одна группа, и жертва окончательно исчезла из поля зрения Халохота. Кипя от злости, тот нырнул в стремительно уплотняющуюся толпу. Он должен настичь Дэвида Беккера!

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