Without the turnout numbers from the City coming to pass like last Fall, incumbants M. Loupassi and John O'Bannon win re-election to the House of Delegates. Loupassi's challenger Bill Grogan will likely come in with about 30% and O'Bannon's challenger Tom Shields is estimated to come in with about 40% of the voter once all have reported.
Turnout of course is always a big issue in these off cycle elections and it appears as though turnout was greatest with the older demographic and the younger demographic was well off the 22% turnout number from last Fall. Turnout for the African-American vote that traditionally supports Democrat candidates was well off the highs of last year and will likely show up in the data in the Governors race where Bob McDonnell has won handily over Creigh Deeds along with Bolling and Cuccinelli.
More to follow.
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35 comments:
Have to say it was a good night
Alter, give credit where credit is due. You simply cannot blame O'Bannon's victory on a lack of turnout in the Richmond precincts.
Had you actually looked at the numbers, you would know that even if every single voter from O'Bannon's two Richmond precincts came out and voted for Shields, O'Bannon still would have won by 4000 votes or more.
Whether you like it or not, O'Bannon's victory is a seal of approval from the voters and not a result of any sort of low turnout.
Shields was a lackluster candidate who spent his time slinging mud rather than coming up with ideas. Perhaps he should move to Chicago where that sort of campaigning works, because the voters of the 73rd district gave him a big, fat, NO last night.
Bloggers like Virginia Right (Wrong) did more mudslinging on behalf of John O'Bannon than anything Shields ever did. I attended the debates and town halls and there was no mud thrown by Shields. Unethical bloggers with no regard for integrity too it upon themselves to smear context and twist words in attempt to smear Shields.
In the end the voter in the 73rd have spoken. But please, lets not give those on O'Bannon's behalf for their intentional dirty style underhanded tactics. I am sure though that those so-called Christian Conservatives will get there in the end as the stand before the gates. I am confident in that.
Personally, I was glad to see that voters in Henrico County stopped the bleeding.
Henrico County for the last few cycles had leaned Democrat. It did not seem to matter what stripe either. Kaine, Webb, Warner or Obama all faired really well in Henrico County.
This time around however, McDonnell put up a big fat speedbump in Henrico. This certainly helped O'Bannon as well but places like Tuckahoe and Derbyshire have traditionally always been Republican. Shields did win two areas in the 73d in Henrico that were anticip[ated based on past voting patterns of overwhelmingly supporting previous Democrats on the ballot. One of those is the Dumbarton area.
Turnout amongst the younger voters in Richmond was considerably lower this year. The voter was older. We are talking the 45+ versus the 35 and under. This helped all of the Republican candidates last night.
I was not implying anything that was not said by the powers that be regarding turnout. Fact is, Shields failed to capatilize on the Obama coalition of voters that were within the district last year. Deeds failed miserably at it as well.
I would warn many people to draw that conservative notion in the sand however, given if you look at the total vote in Henrico for McDonnell this year it is readily apparent that he took a majority of the independents this time around for the GOP.
The question remains whether the GOP can keep us Republicrats, Libertarians, Moderates and Indepedents to truly leverage the victory last night.
One has to remember the Senate in Richmond is still largely Democrat and next year many of those seats will be on the ballot I think.
Anonymous, the only mud I slung was that which was thrown at Dr. O'Bannon. I simply picked it up and threw it back. I am sure Richie will back that up. Strange that you seem to think Shields is not throwing mud saying things like O'Bannon wants to extinguish Alzheimer's victims. He is a horrible person and does not belong in Virginia, much less the House.
And I have no doubt that Shields would have lost with or without my comments. Dr. O'Bannon is such a strong candidate that he easily defeated Shields.
Shields mailed $121,000 worth of lies and smears in September and October. I attempted to respond to every one.
He knew how to silence me - stick to the issues and the truth.
And Alter, I believe all 40 Senate seats are up next year. Along with the entire US House and 1/3 of the US Senate.
This was a great year for Republicans. The momentum will carry into next year. We all must do our part to keep it going and keep the voters interested and involved.
We can all pat each other and ourselves on the back, but keep the enemy in sight. The first battle has ended in victory. It will be a long war.
Nancy Pelosi claiming victory today is the kind of thing that will keep us winning. She absolutely does not get it.
This was not a great year for Republicans Tom. It was a great year for Virginians.
You still simply just never seem to grasp the difference. You may be better served at times to put down the partisan lense and see things a bit more Virginian-like.
Afterall, I think the example set in NY23 demonstrates that when you swing the partisan bat too heavy you drive folks away, especially the middle.
Given the latest Gallup polling, we can take pride in the fact that 40% identify themselves as conservatives. Maybe we ought to spend less time addressing what brand or kind of conservative and more time focusing on leveraging what we have in common.
Just like Bob McDonnell did Tom!
Jonathan is right, it was a great day for Virginian's not just Republicans(although red is my favorite color)...we need to remember that the conservative viewpoint of smaller government, personal accountability and fiscal responsible spending of our tax money helps everyone whether the person agrees or not. It's the best path to prosperity IMHO but not they only way...so that is what we need to show people that it is not OUR way but the BEST way.....we need to take this past Tuesday as an opportunity to expand our influence not to exclude people that just need a nudge…..In these discussions, we all seem to have part of the puzzle but fail to see the picture on the box…this not about my American or your America it’s at a point that it’s about saving any recognizable version of America. We need to come together as a party to make sure we stop the path we have started down in Washington DC and bring back accountability that our representatives need to have to the people that voted them in to office. What’s at stake now is bigger than Republicans, conservatives, liberal and fanatics so we all need to get over it and start working together… we have created a “ruling” class in D.C. and that needs to stop before they have taken all the power away from our free society……..apologies, rant is over
No rant Jody....your just stating the facts my friend. Well done.
For Virginia Right's benefit maybe you should have said "you're" JS- LOL!! The grammer police in the blogosphere over there. When they can't seem to stay within debate parameters on the real issues they seem to always toss out that charge; your logic is fine but how it was expressed was wrong so therefore we must throw it out. The tact of expression at Virginia Right mirrors that which Lowell Feld and the liberal masses did for almost four years at raising Kaine. MAybe they are the true equivalent of being liberal since they always like to use that playbook when dealing with people within the very Party they say they embrace. What a joke.
WHY CAN'T WE ALL JUST GET ALONG!!!! :)LOL
LOL!LOL!
One BIG happy family is all I have to say. I just hope that the powers that be in the State GOP, but specifically in Chesterfield County understand the value of opening up the Party and making the family as BIG as possible. Sure, just like all families, we will have debates and often disagreements but in the end the feelings of Tueday night ARE a heck of alot better than the one we had this time last year.
Bring on 2010 and then those pesky little Supervisor races in 2011. We need to take back Matoaca, Clover Hill and Midlothian Jody in Chesterfieldand return those seats to the GOP fold!!!!
Speaking of that, any ideas who may run for the GOP nod in Matoaca. I think anyone can beat Durfee...just hadn't heard any names yet.
You will probably have to take a hard look at the insiders and the CCRC.
Tubbs will probably get the nod again there. The name escapes me of the challenger to Tubbs in the firehouse primary for the GOP, but he was if memory serves a good campaigner.
People need to remember that the Matoaca race had about four or five candidates in 2007 allowing Durfee to win.
Tubbs challenger was a young CPA maned Kevin Salheim (sp?).
Durfree is becoming famous for not returning phone calls or emails. She is too busy trying to bring high speed rail to the region. I think her her next project will be bringing peace to the Middle East or solving global warming.
The district will need one solid canidate to unseat her. I don't think you can take someone with that is know as a strong party person who turn has come to run.
The district is large with various areas that see things differently. Schools will be a big issue.
Durfee like Daniel Gecker promised alot in their campaigns in 2007. Probalem is they personally have failed to deliver. Both pledged "planning not politics" for Chesterfield and though we may have a new citizen commision on comprehensive planning reform, these leaders have failed in two years to address the status quo.
Durfee at least has an excuse. She was an activist for smart planning, but Gecker has overseen the most ambitious growth of virtually any locality in Virginia the last nine years as Planning Commissioner and now as Supervisor. He cannot outrun his own past on this issue.
Our transportation woes and max school capacity are a direct result of excessive growth agenda brought about by Gecker and now given a pass by Durfee.
I do not see it being as congested in the race the next time around. The question will be whether the Democrats chose to nominate a candidate in either Matoaca or Midlothian given both Durfee and Gecker ARE Democrats who simply ran as independents in 2007.
Don't be so sure that Tubbs will get the not in Matoaca for a host of reasons, there are grumblings of some younger Republicans wanting to run and 2011 may be the year that younger candidates get the nod considering the inroads they are making in the party.....2011 will be a very important election for Chesterfield and the status quo will not work this time IMHO
Jody- The problem will be either an intense open primary for the GOP in the district which could result in one victor and than have one of those losing running as an Independent in the General. I just hope the insiders do not have their way and prevent there from being a real primary for CC Republicans to chose the right candidate.
I predict that there will be plenty of Independents running in 2011 because both the CCRC and the CCDC are so entrenched in their ways.
Would not surprised to see Erik Finkbeiner (sp) challenge Gecker in Midlothian. He may have lost his bid for School Board, but his defeat was closer than people thought it would be.
anon, no argument here with your assessment...I can just state what I know about Matoaca (where I live) and what I've heard and what I actully know.:) Since the BOS elections are in 2011, things may shake out a little different than in the past given what happen this past NOV 3rd and what may happen next year....the next two election cycles are going to be wild and many new names will be heard from in the upcoming elections (in regards to the general populous in Chesterfield)to challnge those perrenial names that seem to always come up more than in past years. Knowing Eric personally I would vote for him in a heartbeat...a very good man
I think we will indeed see numerous canidates for most BOS and School Board races. There will be names from the GOP, Dems, and Indies that will surprise people.
The old guard from both parties and the School Board will have dimished influence. Marshall Trammel has done alot of good for the CCPS but we really need some new blood. Diane P. is the best School Board member. Omar tries hard but he is a goner-the Swift Creek area will defeat him. P. Carpenter is usually in a fog of confusion. The other fellow has under acheived considering his financial background. The sixth School Board member is Durfree (she thinks so).
Alter would make an outstanding School Board member.
I humbly disagree anon on CSB ….Omarh will get elected to school board again for sure. No other recent local politician has worked harder for their constituency than Omarh Rajah. The swift creek area may be tough but southern Matoaca (Ettrick etc.) will negate those that want to oppose his re-election… I have a feeling he may even go unopposed due to his record, presence in the community and skill in campaigning. I already know I’m voting for him in 2011 and I don’t even know who his opponents will be…he is that good IMHO
I must take this opportunity to thank Anon for the endorsement regarding the School Board.
I agree with Jody Wilcox on much of what we will see in the next two cycles. Chesterfield County is changing but we have maintained our traditonal conservative roots even through two decades of growth.
My biggest disappointment in local politics is we have witnessed so much blame game politics at the government level between the BOS and School Board. Unfortunately, they each seem to have their own agenda instead of more of a compromised approach. We will never get ahead of the growth curve and school capacity if we can's come to some agreement regarding how we are going to look at the future numbers. Instead, the two sides bicker over whose statistics or whose study is accurate.
I am a pretty level headed guy, but has anyone ever wondered why is okay for a public school to be over capacity when you could never get away with a building or business violating maxium capacity set by the fire marshall. If we set a number as our capacity thresold than that is where we need to maintain our enrollment. Otherwise, the thresold is simply an arbitrary or artificial number to be manipulated by politicians.
If I were to decide to challenge an incumbant I would start with school capacity as a primary message. Ask yourself just who is responsible for the overcrowding. Take a look at whose hand has been behind most of the growth that has resulted in many of these issues. Examine just how the "growth pays for growth" model has worked and work our way backwards. Take a look at the disparity between citizen expense and business expense with regard to the growth model.
The old saying "if you build it they will come"...well they built it and people indeed came to Chesterfield. The only problem is we have a leadership set on approving zonings and developments with zero considerations on the impacts of such measures outside of finances.
I will tell you there are many in local government thankful for the slowing housing starts. Had things kept the same pace as 2002 thru 2007 Chesterfield would have been in severe trouble with regard to schools and transportation issues.
Omar did the right thing on the Tomahawk MS redistricting but doomed his political career by doing so. He does not have the money or support to match the person already working behind the scenes with a certain group.
Omar is honest and caring but that does not work in politics. He upset the wrong folks. He would have made a better supervisor than DUMfree.
"Honest and Caring"--- but that does not work in politics....you just summed up the problem on so many levels with one simple line.
Omar is not the problem....we are!!!We accept that honesty and compassion should be void in politics. Instead we should work to support those that demonstrate such character traits.
How many of us say we want to our children to growg up to be politicians? My guess is very few. We can have leaders on the SB and the Board that are NOT politicians. Omar is but one good example of this people.
Our government is only as good as the people that run and get elected...the less complaining and the more doing that the populus does the better off we all are...without action the critic is just a crabby complainer
Couldn't have said it better myself, Jody.
My biggest beef with Marleen Durfee is that she seems to reek of hypocrisy. The woman ran for "responsible growth," yet over a third of her donations in 2007 came from developers. Explain to me how someone can take money from a group that she is supposed to be working against. Could it possibly be that she is really in bed with developers, especially commercial developers, given that she now wants to turn Magnolia Green into a business complex?
I further found hypocrisy with Marleen on that front that she criticized Tubbs for the same thing and held off reporting those donations until after the election...the last reporting cycle. We need to run with a pledge to only take idividual donations to avoid mis-interpretation of PAC donations IMHO
TC and Jody-
I agree completely. I live in the Midlothian district but will be moving into the Mataoca District early next year.
Durfee's hypocrisy is of great concern. I have kept watch here in Midlothian as Mr. Gecker promised change but has failed to deliver any. Gecker sat for almost eight years on the Planning Commission after his appointment by Democrat Ed Barber and remained on that body while Republican Don Sowder was Supervisor. Gecker ran against Sowder as a Democrat the first time around and lost but than the second time in 2007 ran as an "independent" and won. There is hardly anything "independent" about Gecker.
After all those years on the Planning Commission, people thought that as Supervisor he would have a greater grasp on the growth issues. What voters failed to realize was Gecker had established the very relationships that Durfee is now establishing with the developer class. Voters anticipated change but instead got more of the same.
Gecker was the direct reason the first round of proffer fees remained lower than other growing localities. At least Durfee and Holland sought a higher proffer rate and yet at a Midlothian High school debate Gecker told voters he felt that the proffer system was broken and that at the very least rates needed to come more in line with other areas. Instead when given the opportunity to makes those rates comparable, Gecker's opposition resulted in a much lower increase than proposed. He sold out to the very thing he campaigned against---developer interests.
The developers understand the game. The understand that these leaders will play election games with the voters but in the end will take money from them. Developers establish a money well that these leaders will keep tapping into as cycles come and go.
I think both Gecker and Durfee will be unseated in 2011. In fact, I will work to do so. The greatest resource to offer any local campaign is time not money. If we all pleadge to committ some of our time to spread the truth and the real record thoughout our community we can move Chesterfield in the right direction.
By the way TC, most people have no idea that residents of Magnolia Green, current and future, pay a $495 in additional taxes to fund the extension of Powhite on top of their already existing property taxes. I think residents in Charter Colony may as well.
Even if Chesterfield does not go to 7 districts, DUMfree's district will be somewhat different. The 5 districts are now out of proportion from 2001.
Some of her land area could go to Clover Hill or Midlo.
The current five BOS members will get to pick their voters.
Wow John, I didn't know that at all. But you brought up a topic that I am extremely interested in, that being the cash proffer system.
If I'm not mistaken, the current proffer is right around $19,000. What I don't understand is why it is so high. Henrico, which I believe is a perfect model for the way a county can live the "responsible growth mantra", has no cash proffer at all. I want to know how they can do that and how Chesterfield can one day get to a $0 because that proffer is a direct reason why economic development struggles in the county.
It artificially raises the price of all new construction, which causes artificially inflated real estate tax values and higher property taxes than residents should pay. It discourages businesses considering the county as a possible location. To put it bluntly, Chesterfield is scaring away new business.
The cash proffer is a significant reason why the county had to cut more than $50 million from its FY10 budget. It is a huge reason why there is no new affordable housing in the county.
Chesterfield's cash proffer has increased more than 20 percent in the last two years, and more than two-thirds fewer residential building permits were issued in that same time. This is not a coincidence. The cash proffer is a huge factor in driving development, the jobs that come with development, and much of the millions in new tax revenue the county generates from development, out of the county.
IMHO, the cash proffer isn't justhurting Chesterfield County....it is ruining Chesterfield County.
Anon touches on a really good point here.
Alter has long called for additional Magisterial Districts. Last year, Alter proposed creating a Bon Air district taking some of the Clover Hill and Midlothian areas to form it. Much of this area is already fully developed and the growth in the County is going to come from Matoaca, Dale and even Bermuda as Ft. Lee expands.
The current representation ratio is hard thing to accept. With a population surely to exceed 300k+ in the 2010 census, how can we find that five Supervisors is sufficient?
Many have voiced support for a sixth district and than an At-Large one. This would bring the number to (7) and prevent a deadlock on voting matters. I think this would be a great campaign issue for new potential candidates as well.
I also feel as though it would benefit the County to have an independent body make the determinations regarding the districts and not the current Board. There is too much potential conflict of interest IMHO. If we can have a commission of citizens set up to address comprehensive planning or even school re-districting than we certainly can have one establish for this issue.
If the current Board cannot get behind such a recommendation than that certainly can be used against every single one of them in the election. Let them explain why it is they feel they can do it better and us citizens cannot.
Remember, these are the same people to a large extent who said that growth and schools would be addressed. Fact is, they have not really done much other than bicker over the fate of the old Clover Hill High as well as the Uppper Swift Creek Plan.
One area I would like to see a candidate touch on in the Matoaca and Midlothian races is why it is acceptable for residents and homeowners around Swift Creek Reservoir to have a virtual monopoly on access to the water without the County adequetly providing public access to Swift Creek. Should not the reservoir be there for the use and enjoyment of all citizens of Chesterfield?
Anyone seeking to work together to unseat these leaders, regardless of Party, should begin to start the process of mobilizing. Citizens must begin to formulate a concerns list for the issues that truly matter to them not let these incumbants shape the debate. I know we have the 2010 elections coming up before out local race in 2011, but we must begin the process of forming a coalition of forces that is not bound by district lines.
I hope Alter, Jody, and TC Robinson will join in that end.
TC: just saw your post.
The reason Henrico has no rate is that the business community shares the brunt of the burden for growth. In CC you have about a 80/20 split with 20% paid by the business and commercial interests. In fact, commercial projects in CC pay none at all in terms of proffers TC. Its pretty much all residential proffers. Henrico has a much more balanced ratio and given the population of the two areas are similar and the growth has been about the same the difference is they have more to work with in terms of their finances. Remember, Henrico like Arlington also pays for its own roads unlike CC who is at the mercy of VDOT funding.
People like Gecker and others believed Watkins Center would be like Short Pump Town Center in terms of revenue generation, but never addressed that the benefit to the County would never be what Henrico gets from commercial growth.
Gecker promised in 2007 to bring that 80/20 ratio down to at least 60/40 but to my knowledge no measures have been taken to do so. In fact, I fully expect taxes to go up in CC by 2011 given the projected budget issues.
Cash proffers if you ask developers behind closed doors is not really an issue. They pass on that 19,000 (15,600 previous) to the home buyer in terms of new home construction. The slowing in permits has more to do with the glut in the new home sales market with all the resales in the County experiencing about a 15% hit in terms of value. Short Sales and Foreclosures are on the rise as well. Magnolia Green's developer filed bankruptcy as well and may be a sign of whats to come with many developers. There is a national consolidation in the housing industry as well going on which has impacted the markets for new homes. Centex recently was absorbed for example.
The crucial point will be with Sen. Watkin's of Powhatan and his proposal to have "impact fees" and eliminate the use of proffers statewide by localities. Pay particular attention to how local leaders come down on this issue.
TC another point is places like Fairfax, PWC and others in NOVA have proffers close to 47K. Thats more than twice our rate and its being paid for by the same developers there that are building here. Fact is Centex, Ryan and others get the land in Chesterfield much cheaper than elsewhere and publically act like they are overly concerned with the proffer here, but privately know its merely a cost of doing business. They will spin it to be about the consumer and it being a tax but thats just how they play the game.
Both Alter and Jonathan appear to be on to something.
I agree with you completely, Johnathan. At the very least, we should have a 6th At-Large Supervisor come the 2011 elections, if not a new district entirely, with a 7th At-Large. And yes, anyone that stands in the way of such proposal should be defeated at the ballot box, and I don't care if you're a Repulican, Democrat or Independent.
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