Saturday, November 8, 2008

Chesterfield County: Historic Voting Pattern

With the election behind us but still fresh in our minds it is important to note that while Chesterfield County has voted Republican in every Presidential election since Ronald Reagan in 1980, the Democrat Party has increased in minority position at the polls in every election since Reagan's victory.

The following link here: www.roanoke.com/wb/171865

Has some great interactive maps that demonstrate the trends with the State regarding the Presidential elections. For those of us who can't get enough of the data points it is very interesting to see how areas change with regard to growth and then ultimately political allegiances.

In particular it is interesting how SW Virginia has changed from completely "blue" to all "red" since 1980 but equally how suburban areas have seen increased Democrat infleunce in the last twelve years. So much for the "soccer mom" theories. I am researching some of the data with regard to gender demographics and voter turnout in the suburbs as well to determine where some of these trends are coming from. Another aspect to consider also is the migration from the urban centers out into the suburbs like Chesterfield. The recent explosion in the housing market between 1996 and 2006 may be able to explain alot of the growing trends in terms of growth patterns. This can be seen in data in the 2000/2004 election, but with so many new urban voters in 2008 the data gets a bit fuzzy. It was easier to see the transfer of voting patterns from urban centers to the suburbs in 2000/2004.

Though the current economy certainly plays a big role, it is not inconceivable for Chesterfield County to reach 350,000-400,000 residents by 2020.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Metro Richmond is the second fastest growth area in Virginia and Chesterfield is playinga key part of that growth. Many of the new residents are not coming from out of state but on coming here from Northern Virginia where they participated in the fast growing job market after college but have returned to Chesterfield or are new to it to raise families. It has been my experience that the younger these new residents are the move inclined they are to be leaning Democrat. We are also seeing a large number of professionals moving away from the City out into the County, especially as you point out during the recent housing bubble where they could get in really nice homes relatively easier than the generation before.

LUCKS LANE said...

The area has also consistently received people from the Piedmont, Southside, and SWVA.