Is Chesterfield in Decline?

Its been almost a month since the election that resulted in the changing of the guard of leadership. As the political rhetoric has waned and those invoking such tones that succeeded in bids for election prepare to enter the trial by fire known as County politics it begs a very simple question that was nevered answered by any of these newly elected officials during the campaign season;

Is Chesterfield County in Decline?

I only ask this basic question because as some would have us believe the election was all about "change" and would like to persuade us that a thirty percent voter turnout is somehow a "mandate" for new direction.

But where is this new "direction" bound to lead us? Of course not a single candidate for office could articulate any true new vision for the County in a micro sense but took the road toward addressing the macro issues of the impacts of growth and schools that have resulted from the commercial and residential growth rates in the County. When I say "addressing" I mean to say they pointed the political finger and who they sought to blame for those impacts, offering up very little in the way of substance or solution. It was an election season that may have been less about ideas or solutions but rather one simply solely based on change. And I do not mean philosophical change either. I mean it may have been change for change sake and if that is the case our County could been for more pains.

So now that Chesterfield voted for this change, exactly what "change" do these newly elected officials seek to bring to our community? I ask this in large part because growth was made as the most central issue to most campaigns that much of the other issues before the County today went largely unaddressed with hardly even a question. In fact, a few campaigns made the growth issue the catalyst for change.

I wonder just how many of these officials dug deep enough to learn the exact state of affairs in the County and its economic vitality? When you look across the river at Henrico County and see that residents of that area returned a Board of Supervisors to leadership with a bit tenious record at best when compared with those here in Chesterfield. I wonder if the incumbants either got caught in a firestorm for change or rather were unable to articulately defend the record of the County before the voters.

It has been my opinion that the incumbant campaigns were remarkably mismanaged and they fell into the trappings of a gameplan laid out by the challengers as well as a reliance on the old notion that the County would also lean Republican as it has so many times in the past. Incumbants allowed the tone and the focus to be in an area that benefited the challengers thus finding themselves playing defense the last four weeks going into the election day and managed to miss opportunities with the policy agenda leading into the election to reasonable address its constiuents in a caring manner.

You never play defense with the cards so stacked in your favor. Why? Simple. Chesterfield is simply not in the state that the challengers portrayed by any means. Does the County have some critical issues before it? Certainly. But the County is not having to address any issue that every County in the region is not experiencing as well. The entire region is experiencing these issues , which is why you will hear more about regional cooperation in the coming years. No one has the revenues to adequetely address all the needs each area has with regard to transportation and roads and now that it appears the new Board will not endorse such measures as impact fees or raising cash proffers Chesterfield will have to make some very hard spending choices in the coming year if they are to deliver true change and it begs the question just why it was Chesterfield County that saw this result with the election and other localities did not? Chalk that up to poor communication and little transparency on policy.

But back to the question. Is Chesterfield in decline? The viewpoint an incumbant should have been focusing on is the trends we have been experiencing.

Chesterfield County is up in virtually every economic indicator from 1996 to 2006. With over 292K residents we have seen our population increase 1.8% every year the last six years. Over 2005 and 2006 we saw an increase of 2,923 new residents. The greater Richmond region only grew 1.3% and Virginia as a whole only 1.2% in the same period.

From 2000 to 2006 our labor force has grown 15% and the 2005/06 period grew 3.9% by adding 4,435 new jobs to the Chesterfield economy. Compared with 1997 our labor force has grown some 22% in ten years. and our current unemployment rate is a mere 2.7%. Has anyone seen the rate for places in Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky or even Maryland? The County currently has .7 jobs per person in a county of just under 300K.

If there is an issue it must be in wages. Chesterfield residents on avergae earn roughly $702 a week which is increasing but lags both the Richmond region ($799) and Virginia ($822). We need to find ways and attract those business models in the service and medical industries that will bring higher paying jobs to the County to increase this figure.

Where is or was the challengers plan for attracting new business, real business and not retail which accounts for 19% of the jobs in the County, other than to point to commercial development. And some of the rhetoric during the campaigns should have been challenged by the incumbants regarding this idea that the County has too much commercial development.

Commercial development accounts for only 13% of the acreage in the County and of that number some 62% of it is industrial (8,500 acreas) 16% of it retail (2,200 acreas) and 9% (1,300 acreas) is office development. That leaves 87% of our county acreage being of the Residential variety. My guess is these politicians were confusing communities as commercial endeavors, which by the way added 1,200 jobs to our economy in 2005/06.

Even though we have been lagging in wages when compared to other areas of the State, the growing economy has trigger an increase in overall individual income. From 1995 to 2004 averages increased some 6.3% per year through the period. Per capita income also saw an increase of some 47% from 1995 to 2004.

Chesterfield has also seen its gross tax sales (receipts) increase 4.5% from 2000 to 2006. In 2006 alone the County experienced 3.4 billion in taxable sales from retail and services. That number is above average for the entire State.

In terms of housing, the County has just had a run of tremondous growth. What the challengers in the election failed to mention was those entities they attack so much for developing the County or contributing to campaigns accounted for some 35 million in tax revenues in the construction industry alone. Currently, and again it was not mentioned in the campaigns of course, permits for commercial purposes are down over 2005. 1999 was the highwater mark at 900 permist issued but by 2006 that number had fallen to 700 and it appears as though 2007 will be even less. A fair question may have been where the new Board expects to make up or generate the revenue lost due to the decline in permits that will certainly continue over the next two years why the housing and credit markets work themselves out?

While the victors early this month make the respective "pledges" in the local papers, I wonder just how many of them realize exactly what economic shape the County is truly in? By every indication they have inherited a County that is beating virtually every economic indicator and on balance is a locality that certainly ranks among the top three in the entire State. I just cannot help but think that the growth issue that was the "sword" of this months election may have had a primary role in vitality of the economic condition that has been left for them to manage.

Then again the elected officials are no longer challengers but are all incumbants beginning in January and it may be a different story come the Spring when they will be forced to dispense with the "change" agenda and work to advance solutions.

Fact is these officials are entering offcie at a time when the economic conditions of the greater economy may work against them. The previous years are certainly some very hard numbers to face up to if things begin to unravel nationally.

Is Chesterfield in Decline? With numbers like these, You be the judge.