tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4016574119422355102.post6020542600152685059..comments2023-11-05T05:05:34.610-04:00Comments on Alter of Freedom: Public Policy Polling: VirginiaUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4016574119422355102.post-51142896291547906062008-09-18T22:56:00.000-04:002008-09-18T22:56:00.000-04:00The PPP (D) polling was done on a Saturday and Sun...The PPP (D) polling was done on a Saturday and Sunday. Gee I wonder where those conservative, especially social ones where on Sunday morning to take that call.<BR/><BR/>Other polls:<BR/><BR/>CNN/Time--McCain +4<BR/>CNU- McCain +9<BR/>National Journal -McCain +7<BR/>InAdv- McCain +2<BR/>PPP (D)- +2 Obama<BR/>Survey/USA: Obama +4<BR/>Fox/Rasmussen- tied<BR/><BR/>In short, these polls are all over the place.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4016574119422355102.post-65767504404570610082008-09-18T11:08:00.000-04:002008-09-18T11:08:00.000-04:00Word has it, Sarah Palin may be coming back to Vir...Word has it, Sarah Palin may be coming back to Virginia and campaigning with Jim Gilmore while John McCain continues pressing through the Midwest.<BR/><BR/>It appears as though McCain has solidified with Palin Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio and will concentrate on Pennsylvania.<BR/><BR/>Has anyone been looking at the polls in New Jersey? Why is Obama's lead shrinking there.? Is it the women there that supported the former GOP Governor that was of course a woman as well?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4016574119422355102.post-60565864503088109842008-09-18T10:07:00.000-04:002008-09-18T10:07:00.000-04:00And lest you forget there are zero military polled...And lest you forget there are zero military polled and given Virginia's numbers in that regard that is significant.<BR/><BR/>If people think that Obama is going to earn more than 15% of the military than I to have a bridge to fantasyland to sell you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4016574119422355102.post-30720466235344449102008-09-18T08:46:00.000-04:002008-09-18T08:46:00.000-04:00I like to examine the the PPP data because I find ...I like to examine the the PPP data because I find it to be a better cross reference of demographics.<BR/><BR/>For example there has been criticism of the Christopher Newport University poll which targeted cell phone owners for its poll of 500 Virginians where McCain had a 7 pt lead. <BR/><BR/>Survey/USA always seems to come in above its margin of error if you like at Primaries and you have to look at the demographics. I usually discount it generally because it fails to have enough voters from the midwest and southeast, traditional GOP stongholds. Remember this is supposed to be a national poll.<BR/><BR/>I like PPP for internal State polls because they demonstrate an attempt to get a bonafide cross reference. This last one (September) was not as good as August in my opinion because of the rural, urban ,suburban ratio as well as the concentration of a tan percent differecne in the gender ratio in terms of respondents.<BR/><BR/>It is important to note that Joe Biden did better than Sarah Palin in terms of influence in the vote for the top of ticket. That is much different that states like OH.<BR/><BR/>I think we will stay in this range until the debates, but it appears as though McCain has not held at least in VA a post-convention bump like Bush had in 2000/2004. <BR/><BR/>The independents are key for McCain and that is where he is gaining some Mo over Obama here and elsewhere. 5% in VA polled were also undecided.<BR/><BR/>A greater question will be the turnout of African-Amercians; historically 18% or so in these elections for those registered given that percentage of those supporting Obama (95%).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4016574119422355102.post-52939409939980066942008-09-18T02:07:00.000-04:002008-09-18T02:07:00.000-04:00Alter,The most recent Virginia polls show Obama ah...Alter,<BR/><BR/>The most recent Virginia polls show Obama ahead or tied:<BR/><BR/>September 12-14 SurveyUSA pol: McCain 46%, Obama 50%<BR/><BR/>September 13-14 PPP (D): McCain 46%, Obama 48%<BR/><BR/>September 14 FOX/Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 48%<BR/><BR/>And nationally, what ever bump either candidate got from their conventions, the momentum short term seems in Obama’s favor.Bill Garnetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04315250956086524858noreply@blogger.com