Wednesday, November 18, 2009

2020: Three Parties- Republican, Democrat & Conservative Party

If the history of political parties is any indication than it may just be time for the American political landscape to once again expand. There were always offshoots or breakaways within history, but its been quite some time since we have seen it in reality. And no Ross Perot does not count.

Seeing as how the Democrats are under the control of the liberal arm of the Party they are certainly becoming the modern day "Do Nothing Party" since gaining control of both houses of Congress. What they are proposing to do will force the right of the Party known as blue dog conservatives further away from them. The GOP which the media left for dead last year is regrouping, but it is apparent its intent is to consolidate much of the social conservative elements of the Party over that of the fiscal conservatives or even the moderates.

Independents will remain stuck right at the center of the political landscape BUT if things keep rolling the way they are on the ground level and Congress keeps acting as if they live in the Beltway Bubble conservatives and moderates on both sides may be forced to leave both parties by 2020.

A Conservative Party could be born in America. The question remains just who would make up that Party. Would it be the Palin conservatives, the Gingrich conservatives or some other force yet to have taken the reigns. Will the GOP be purely the social conservative party or will it be the social conservatives who leave the GOP fold to form the Conservative Party.

Alot could hinge on the 2012 election IMHO. If Sarah Palin is not given the level of respect a former Vice President selection should be given that may lead to a big rift between the grassroots of the GOP and the insiders that frankly control the Party. Lets face it, the insiders and media elite control much of the primary process, whether you are talking about coverage, fundraising or even the debate schedules.

Stay tuned. There is growing discontent with both Parties at an all time high. Throw in universal healthcare, cap and tax, rising income taxes and you have a recipe for political disaster for the two established Parties. Right now they have little fear of a third party movement, but that could change over the next ten years.

Of course, a large part of a true Conservative Party movement would require a ton of money!!!

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Loupassi, Ware & O'Bannon Retain House Seats & McDonnell Rolls

Without the turnout numbers from the City coming to pass like last Fall, incumbants M. Loupassi and John O'Bannon win re-election to the House of Delegates. Loupassi's challenger Bill Grogan will likely come in with about 30% and O'Bannon's challenger Tom Shields is estimated to come in with about 40% of the voter once all have reported.

Turnout of course is always a big issue in these off cycle elections and it appears as though turnout was greatest with the older demographic and the younger demographic was well off the 22% turnout number from last Fall. Turnout for the African-American vote that traditionally supports Democrat candidates was well off the highs of last year and will likely show up in the data in the Governors race where Bob McDonnell has won handily over Creigh Deeds along with Bolling and Cuccinelli.

More to follow.